An idea whose time has come (Bruce Walker, November 14, 2005, Enter Stage Right)
What is the solution to our national security problems? Balkanization. Those unfamiliar with history (almost anyone who has passed through public schools and our system of universities) may never have heard that term, but it was all the terror in foreign ministries throughout most of the 20th Century. But Balkanization has worked in the Soviet Union, where constituent republics have become peaceful, free and relatively democratic. It has worked in the “Velvet Divorce,” the naturally ending of that unnatural union of Czechs and Slovaks in the former Czechoslovakia. The smaller states of Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia work better than the old polyglot Yugoslavia. Pakistan and Bangladesh get on better than the single nation of West Pakistan and East Pakistan ever did.
Balkanization would work well in Iraq: split this unnatural imperium into three natural nations of Shia, Kurds and Sunnis. America could offer to defend each from aggressive invasion by the others, but then leave these nations, naturally suspicious of each other, to rely upon American friendship as the sure guarantee of political success.
Ever since Woodrow Wilson made it popular such ethnic self-determination has had a grip on peoples’ imaginations and the evidence continues to roll in that smaller states fare better than larger, with the exception of the U.S., the exceptional nation.
I would have to agree that, in Iraq, three separate states would serve the situation well. However, that WOULD tend to water down the Bush administration’s ability to declare a solid victory for democracy. It could also lead to some unfortunate religious extremism in the Sunni section, egged on by Iran.
In fact, though, I tend to think it will happen (the separation) in the long run regardless of what Bush wants. I think it would be a natural progression as I feel it is somewhat doubtful that the Sunni section will ever be able to accept the lesser role in an Iraqi federal government.
We also have one more worry with the separation idea. The Kurds are a worry for Turkey. They are VERY much against allowing a Kurdish state. And that is another mine field that bush is trying to navigate and for good reason.
One thing I can say, though. If Democratic reforms continue apace with its current trajectory in the rest of the Mid East, a tri sectioning of Iraq will, in the end, not be a worry even for Turkey.
Only the most blind partisan and Bush hater would say that democratic change is not occurring in the Mid East, for sure.
Ah, but what do I know, eh? I am a GOP automaton with a heart of darkness and desire to storm-troop the globe! Just ask anyone at the UN.
Keep up the interesting blog, folks!