Lessons from Arizona: Looking for voter motivations in the Grand Canyon State (Jeff Taylor, November 9, 2006, Reason)
The Republicans’ massive emphasis on illegal immigration from South of the border did next to nothing for them at the polls. Candidate after candidate carried big majorities of the anti-illegal immigration vote to defeat, Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania and Michael Steele in Maryland being just two.
But the issue was weakest at its core, at its genesis in along the border with Mexico, precisely where the issue should be strongest. Immigration crackdown poster boy J.D. Hayworth went down to defeat in Arizona even though he is not conceding to former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell and even though few projected him to be in mortal peril in a comfortable GOP seat.
And over in Arizona-8, the GOP could’ve scarcely fielded a more anti-illegal immigration candidate than former Minuteman Randy Graf. Yet Graf failed to hold Jim Kolbe’s strongly Republican district and was overrun by Democrat Gabrielle Giffords in a blow-out.
The votes against Hayworth and Graf had nothing to do with their stances on immigration. I can’t comment on Graf’s campaign, but Hayworth was connected with Abramoff and he was seen as blustering bully.
I can’t recall any emphasis Hayworth placed on the border. What few ads were run on illegal immigration were usually Democrats saying that Republicans failed to protect it – neutralizing any attacks the GOP might have run.
But if you want to use AZ as a barmoter on attitudes towards illegal immigration, there were four propositions tragetted towards illegal immigrants. All passed with overwhelming majorities.
The propositions demonstrate how unserious anti-immigration attitudes are. None will have any effect.
Hayworth targets migrants with immigration bill
Measure would reduce visas for Mexicans
Billy House and Susan Carroll
The Arizona Republic
Sept. 29, 2005 12:00 AM
WASHINGTON – Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., plans to introduce today a sweeping immigration enforcement bill that would create a new national Social Security card, crack down on employers who hired undocumented workers and bring a moratorium on immigrant visas for Mexican citizens.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0929hayworth-immigration29.html
This article is seriously flawed. First, Hayworth ran as an immigration restrictionist, but his opponent ran to Hayworth’s right on the issue. Mitchell claimed that Hayworth didn’t go far enough. Second, CD-8 is not a Republican stronghold district. According to 2002 data, the district was 38% Dem and 43% Rep – hardly a huge registration advantage.
Any district where GOP registrations outnumber Democrat is hugely Republican. Hayworth’s identity is tied up in opposition to immigration. His opponent’s wasn’t.
I’ve been trying to agrue this point for days to no effect. OJ appears to think
it doesn’t matter what Democrats say, they are all for amnesty.
The title of the post is all wrong, but this may be a matter of semantics. “Republicanism” in OJs eyes may be a warm, fuzzy
pillar of civilization. To the electorate, it was a fat lazy stack of pork barrelers with ties to pigs like Abramoff.
Conservative ballot issues did pretty well (as well as the excellent anti-Kelo initiatives).
Generally, OJ is correct that immigration is a losing issue in the long term. The fact is America wants border control and
some path to citizenship, both of which happen to be good policy.
The idea that folks voted Democrat to be tough on immigration is hilarious.
They didn’t vote Democrat to be tough on immigration. But the Democrats tried to take away the stigma of not being tough. Voting for amnesty will result in a backlash that will turn them out in 2008.
No, oj, what’s hilarious is the idea that AZ’s results reflect a pro-amnesty bias in the elecorate, as the propositions passed demonstrate, and as Jim points out about Hayworth’s challenger and Jeff Taylor’s embarrassing ignorance regarding the 8th.
That the props demonstrate an “unserious” attitude, whatever the heck that means, does nothing to support Reason’s and your faulty argument. Hayworth is an obnoxious bully, like Allen, like Santorum, like a whole bunch of Republicans who were rightly turned out for the criminal blunder that is the war in Iraq. Let the hearings begin.
Yup, a vote against JD was a vote against immigration. Just keep saying that to yourselves….
George Bush will get all the credit for amnesty, as Reagan did. Divided government, the Prez gets all the credit.
Yup, a vote against JD was a vote against immigration. Just keep saying that to yourselves….
I don’t recall anyone saying this, much less repeating it mantra-like. A vote against JD is no vote for amnesty, but a vote against Bush and his foreign policy. The Weisberg column you quoted from elsewhere demonstrates just how little immigration had to do with this slaughter; Most of these Dem newcomers took a harder line on immigration, many ran to the right of their Rep opponents on the issue.
As for mantras, here’s one for you:
stay the course; stay the course; stay the course
Bingo! Immigration isn’t an issue to voters.